Based on the statistical data of key contact enterprises of the China Machine Tool and Tool Industry Association, combined with the machine tool output data of the National Bureau of Statistics and customs import and export data, the operation analysis report of relevant branches, and the industry research of the association, The operation of the machine tool industry in 2022 is analyzed. Brief introduction and analysis.
The basic situation of machine tool industry operation
The operating income is basically the same as that of the previous year. The cumulative operating income of the key contact enterprises of the China Machine Tool Industry Association from January to December 2022 has decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, which is basically the same as the operating income in 2021. In 2021, the operating income of the association's key contact companies will increase by 26.2% year-on-year, with a high base. In 2022, under the impact of two severe epidemics in the second and fourth quarters, it is not easy for the operating income to still be basically flat year-on-year. In terms of specific industries, the industries of metal forming machine tools, abrasive tools, and rolling functional parts increased year-on-year, while the industries of metal cutting machine tools, measuring tools, numerical control devices, machine tool accessories, and machine tool electrical appliances decreased year-on-year. Figure 1 is a comparison of the year-on-year growth rate of operating income of key contact companies during the three-year period from 2020 to 2022.
Figure 1 Year-on-year growth rate of operating income of key contact companies
1.Figure 1 shows the changes in the operating income of the machine tool industry in the three years of the new crown epidemic: the outbreak of the epidemic at the beginning of 2020, the operating income dropped sharply, and as the epidemic was brought under control, it returned to growth month by month during the year; the recovery trend will continue in 2021, and the year-round realization will be relatively high. High growth rate; in 2022, it started with growth at the beginning of the year, fluctuated twice during the year due to the epidemic, and recovered to basically the same level as the previous year at the end of the year. In the three years, 2022 is a year to overcome difficulties amid fluctuations and strive to recover.
2. Profit growth, loss level is flat, China Machine Tool Industry Association's key contact companies will achieve a year-on-year increase of 43.7% in total profit from January to December 2022. The growth of total profit is mainly due to the fact that the industry as a whole has been at a low profit level for a long time, and the base of total profit is low, which also reflects the upgrading of product structure. The bailout policies of governments at all levels are also important factors. In terms of specific sub-sectors, metal cutting machine tools, metal forming machine tools, abrasives, and machine tool electrical appliances saw a year-on-year increase, while other sub-sectors decreased year-on-year. All sub-sectors are profitable. During the same period, loss-making enterprises accounted for 19.7% of the association's key contact enterprises, which was the same as the same period last year.
3. Large year-on-year increase in inventories In December 2022, the inventories of key enterprises associated with the Association increased by 10.8% year-on-year. Among them, raw materials increased by 9.6% year-on-year, and finished products increased by 10.9% year-on-year. In terms of specific sub-sectors, the inventories of all sub-sectors increased year-on-year. Raw materials and finished products in the metal cutting machine tool, metal forming machine tool, and machine tool accessories industries both increased year-on-year; raw materials in the tool and measuring tool and machine tool electrical industry decreased year-on-year, and finished products increased year-on-year; raw materials in the abrasive abrasives and rolling functional parts industry increased year-on-year, and finished products decreased year-on-year ; Raw materials and finished products in the CNC device industry both decreased year-on-year.
Operation of metal processing machine tool industry
The production and consumption of metal processing machine tools are calculated according to the China Machine Tool Industry Association. In 2022, the production volume of metal processing machine tools in my country will be 182.30 billion yuan (27.11 billion US dollars), a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, of which the production volume of metal cutting machine tools will be 115.84 billion yuan ( 17.22 billion US dollars), an increase of 3.3% year-on-year; the production of metal forming machine tools was 66.46 billion yuan (9.88 billion US dollars), an increase of 8.4% year-on-year. In 2022, the consumption of metal processing machine tools in my country will be 184.36 billion yuan (US$27.41 billion), a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, of which the consumption of metal cutting machine tools will be 124.03 billion yuan (US$18.44 billion), a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%; the consumption of metal forming machine tools will be 60.33 billion billion yuan (8.97 billion U.S. dollars), a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. 2. Machine tool output and output value According to the statistical data of enterprises above designated size released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of metal processing machine tools in 2022 is detailed in Table
Table 1 Production of metal processing machine tools of enterprises above designated size in 2022
Figure 2 and Figure 3 are the comparison of the year-on-year growth rate of the output of metal cutting machine tools and metal forming machine tools in the three years from 2020 to 2022.
Figure 2 Year-on-year growth rate of output of metal cutting machine tools
Figure 3 Year-on-year growth rate of output of metal forming machine tools
Figure 2 and Figure 3 show the change trend of the production of metal cutting machine tools and metal forming machine tools during the three years of the epidemic, which is basically similar to the change trend of operating income in Figure 1, but the production of machine tools for the whole year and most of the months in 2022 will decline year-on-year. According to the cumulative data from January to December 2022 of key enterprises contacted by the association, the output of metal cutting machine tools decreased by 23.3% year-on-year, and the output value decreased by 5.4% year-on-year. Among them, the output of CNC metal cutting machine tools decreased by 22.7% year-on-year, and the output value decreased by 5.1% year-on-year. The output of metal forming machine tools decreased by 15.9% year-on-year, and the output value increased by 18.1% year-on-year. Among them, the output of CNC metal forming machine tools decreased by 13.2% year-on-year, and the output value increased by 23.0% year-on-year.
Operating income, total profit and inventory situation From January to December 2022, the operating income of metal cutting machine tools among key contact enterprises of China Machine Tool Industry Association decreased by 5.6% year-on-year, and metal forming machine tools increased by 17.5% year-on-year. The total profit of metal cutting machine tools increased by 63.8% year-on-year, and that of metal forming machine tools increased by 63.1% year-on-year. The loss of metal cutting machine tool industry was 18.8%, which was 2.9 percentage points lower than that of the same period of last year; the loss of metal forming machine tool industry was 28.6%, which was the same as that of the same period of last year. The inventory of finished metal cutting machine tools increased by 9.2% year-on-year, and the inventory of finished metal forming machine tools increased by 33.0% year-on-year. 4. Orders According to the association's statistics on the orders of metal processing machine tools from key contact enterprises, the year-on-year orders for metal cutting machine tools and metal forming machine tools in 2022 are detailed in Table 2. Table 2 Orders for metal processing machine tools in 2022
New orders and orders in hand for metal cutting machine tools have been in a year-on-year decline during the year, but the decline has narrowed month by month. At the end of the year, new orders still declined year-on-year, orders in hand have resumed growth, and production and operation have resumed slowly. New orders and orders in hand for metal forming machine tools increased significantly year-on-year, and the growth rate was higher than that of the previous year.
Import and export situation
Overall situation In 2022, the import and export of the machine tool industry will be generally stable, the fluctuation of imports will decline, and the exports will maintain growth. According to China Customs data, the total import and export volume of machine tool tools will be 33.36 billion US dollars in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%. Among them, the import was 12.40 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2%; the export was 20.95 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%. In 2022, the import and export of machine tools will maintain a surplus since June 2019. The surplus was US$8.55 billion, a year-on-year increase of 58.1%. Abrasives (3.89 billion U.S. dollars), woodworking machine tools (2.34 billion U.S. dollars), cutting tools (2.33 billion U.S. dollars), metal forming machine tools (910 million U.S. dollars), and machine tool functional components (including parts) (1.3 billion U.S. dollars) will show a trade surplus in 2022 100 million U.S. dollars), casting machines (0.9 billion U.S. dollars), measuring tools and measuring instruments (0.5 billion U.S. dollars), and numerical control devices (0.4 billion U.S. dollars), a total of 8 commodity fields. Compared with the previous year, there are two new commodity fields of machine tool functional components (including parts) and measuring tools and instruments. Figure 4 and Figure 5 respectively show the cumulative import and export of major product categories of machine tools.
Figure 4 Cumulative Imports of Machine Tool Products (US$100 million)
It can be seen from Figure 4 that metal cutting machine tools rank first in the imports of machine tools, accounting for 45.2% of the total imports, followed by functional components of machine tools, accounting for 13.3%. Compared with the same period of the previous year, except for numerical control devices and casting machines, the import value of other commodities decreased.
It can be seen from Figure 5 that abrasives, metal cutting machine tools, and cutting tools are the top three exporters, accounting for 22.1%, 21.0%, and 18.2% of total exports respectively, accounting for 61.2% of total exports. Compared with the same period of last year, except for woodworking machine tools, the export value of other commodities has increased.
Import and export of metal processing machine tools From January to December 2022, the import of metal processing machine tools generally showed a decline in imports and an increase in exports. From January to December 2022, the import value of metal processing machine tools was 6.60 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 11.5%. Among them, the import value of metal cutting machine tools was US$5.61 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%; the import value of metal forming machine tools was US$990 million, a year-on-year decrease of 19.0%. In 2022, the export value of 1-12 metal processing machine tools will be 6.29 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%. Among them, the export value of metal cutting machine tools was 4.39 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%; the export value of metal forming machine tools was 1.90 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%. In terms of trade balance, the total deficit of metal processing machine tools narrowed to 310 million US dollars, a decrease of 1.83 billion US dollars from the previous year. Among them, the deficit of metal cutting machine tools was 1.22 billion US dollars, a decrease of 1.37 billion US dollars from the previous year; the surplus of metal forming machine tools was 910 million US dollars, an increase of 460 million US dollars from the previous year.
(1) The total import value of the top five types of metal processing machine tools imported from January to December 2022 accounted for 79.4% (see Table 3 for details). Table 3 The top five types of metal processing machine tools with the largest import value in January-December 2022
(2) Top five types of metal processing machine tools in terms of export value
From January to December 2022, the total export value of the top five varieties accounted for 65.3% (see Table 4 for details). Table 4 The top five types of metal processing machine tools with the highest export value from January to December 2022
Year-round industry operating characteristics
1. The import and export structure is further optimized. In 2022, the import and export structure of machine tools will continue to show gratifying changes. First, the trade surplus continued to expand. Although metal cutting machine tools still had a deficit, the deficit was smaller than that of the previous year. Second, the export of high-tech machine tools such as machining centers and CNC lathes increased significantly year-on-year, and the export variety structure of metal processing machine tools was optimized.
2. Demand changes are good for some industries. In 2022, the growth of operating income and total profit of the metal forming machine tool and abrasive tools industry will be more prominent. The rapid development of new energy vehicles has brought a large number of orders to the metal forming machine tool industry, but the orders are mainly concentrated in some enterprises. Driven by the rapid development of the semiconductor and new energy industries, the abrasives industry has seen significant growth in sales and profitability.
3. The value of a single machine tool has increased, and the profit level has improved. In 2022, the output of metal cutting machine tools and metal forming machine tools will both decrease year-on-year. However, according to the statistical data of key enterprises contacted by the association, the output value of a single machine tool has increased significantly. At the same time, the profit levels of these two sub-sectors have also improved significantly compared with previous years. In addition to factors such as price changes, the significant upgrade of user demand brought about increased demand for product automation and intelligence, and a substantial increase in orders for complete sets and complete lines are also important factors. This reflects the optimization of the industry's product structure from one aspect.
4. The operation of the industry is seriously affected by the new crown epidemic. The machine tool industry continued the growth trend of the previous year at the beginning of 2022 and achieved double-digit growth. However, outbreaks of epidemics began in Shanghai, Beijing and other places in late March. After entering the fourth quarter, severe epidemics appeared in many places across the country, and the production and operation of enterprises in the machine tool industry were generally affected. The length and geographical scope of the epidemic's impact are the worst in the three-year epidemic.
Situation Judgment and Outlook
1.Favorable factors (1) 2023 is the first year to implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. The Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2022 emphasized that in 2023, the overall improvement of economic operation should be promoted to achieve effective improvement in quality and reasonable growth in quantity. In 2023, my country's economic operation is expected to recover in general. (2) In 2023, China's economy may become a bright spot in the global economy. The International Monetary Fund raised its global economic forecast from 2.7% to 2.9%, mainly due to the recovery of the Chinese economy. The agency has significantly raised China's economic growth forecast to 5.2%, believing that China's optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention policies will pave the way for faster economic growth. (3) In January 2023, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 50.1, an increase of 3.1 percentage points from the previous month, and returned to the expansion range after a lapse of three months. It reflects that after the adjustment of the epidemic prevention and control policy, the manufacturing industry has a relatively strong momentum of rapid recovery.
2. Unfavorable factors (1) The international situation is complicated and the foundation of global economic recovery is not stable. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, inflation in developed economies in Europe and the United States is still high, and monetary tightening continues to be implemented, and the economy may fall into recession. (2) The impact of the three-year epidemic on the economy will take some time to recover, and the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shocks, and weakening expectations is still relatively large. The recovery of machine tool market demand lags behind that of user industries. (3) Various sub-sectors of the machine tool industry are plagued by problems such as blocked supply chains, rising costs of raw materials and labor, shortage of talents, especially insufficient orders in industries such as metal cutting machine tools, etc., and the current production and operation pressure is still relatively high.
3. Prediction of the industry situation in 2023 Based on the judgment of various factors, with the overall recovery of my country's economy, the machine tool industry will continue to grow restoratively in 2023. Under the expected improvement, the annual growth rate is expected to be around 5%.